Despite the common reliance on numerical probability estimates in decision research and decision analysis, there is considerable interest in the use of verbal probability expressions to communicate ...

The paper argues for the need for and importance of the dual calibration of a probability of default (PD) model (ie, calibration to both point-in-time (PIT) and through-the-cycle (TTC) PD levels). It ...

We all make judgments of probability and depend on them for our decision-making. However, it is not always obvious which judgments to trust, especially since a range of studies suggest that these ...

This is a preview. Log in through your library . Abstract A method for evaluating the reliability of option-based price probability assessments is developed based on the calibration concept. Empirical ...